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Egypt's debt restructuring in 2024 unlikely but plausible: Morgan Stanley

Egypt is required to pay $29.23 billion in external debt service in 2024

By: Business Today Staff

Thu, Dec. 14, 2023

In a Morgan Stanley research note, that outlines nine surprises that would impact emerging markets, one of them is if Egypt undertakes debt restructuring in 2024 due to the country's escalating borrowing costs.

Morgan Stanley doesn't consider the restructuring scenario as likely, however said that it still could happen "given sufficient reserves to service upcoming external debt obligations in 2024, any restructuring will likely be pre-emptive in nature," the research note reads.

Egypt is required to pay $29.23 billion in external debt in 2024, $19.43 billion in 2025, and $22.94 billion in 2026, according to data released by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE).

The CBE also reported that in November, Egypt's net international reserves (NIR) increased by $72 million, reaching a total of $35.173 billion.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) hinted at the possibility of expanding Egypt's $3 billion loan program, with its communications director confirming ongoing discussions and emphasizing the critical need for additional funds in the wake of the conflict in Gaza.

“It is clear that additional financing will be critical to ensure the success in the implementation of the policy package for Egypt,” explained IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack during a press conference, underlining the potential impact of the conflict, especially on Egypt's tourism sector.

Kozack did not disclose further details, stating that “the exact size of the financing is part of the ongoing discussions" between the IMF and Egyptian authorities.