The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its growth forecasts for Egypt's economy in the fiscal year 2022/2023. It now anticipates a growth rate of 4.2%, which is higher than the previous estimate of 3.7% reported in July. However, the IMF has revised down its expectations for the fiscal year 2023/2024, projecting a growth rate of 3.6%, compared to the earlier projection of 4.1% in July.

 

As detailed in the World Economic Outlook report released during the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Marrakesh, Morocco, the IMF foresees a rise in consumer prices in Egypt from 13.2% in the fiscal year ending in 2022 to 35.7% in 2022/2023, followed by a decrease to 25.9% in 2023/2024.

 

Additionally, the report suggests that unemployment rates in Egypt may see a decline to 7.1% from 7.3% in 2021/2022 but are expected to rise again in 2023/2024 to 7.5%.

 

Regarding Egypt's IMF program, approved in December, which spans 46 months with a value of $3 billion, it is set to undergo two reviews annually until mid-September 2026, totaling eight reviews. Initially scheduled for mid-March, the first review, which determines the disbursement of the second tranche of the loan, has been delayed.

 

On a global scale, the report indicates a slowdown in economic growth, with a decrease from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and a further decline to 2.9% in 2024. This represents a 0.1 percentage point reduction for 2024 compared to the previous outlook report issued in July.

 

The report further suggests that advanced economies are expected to experience a slowdown, dropping from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, primarily due to tightening policy measures.

 

For emerging market and developing economies, the report projects a modest decline in growth from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024.

 

Regarding global inflation, the forecast indicates a steady decline, moving from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023 and further decreasing to 5.8% in 2024. This decline is attributed to tighter monetary policies and lower international commodity prices. Core inflation is expected to decrease more gradually, with inflation not expected to return to target levels until 2025 in most cases.